Abiy Secures Landslide Victory Centralization Fears Grow

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed secured a commanding victory in this month’s national elections, with his Prosperity Party winning 438 of the 501 contested seats. The result, announced by the National Election Board of Ethiopia, cements Abiy’s grip on power as he prepares for another five‑year term starting in October.

More than 50 million Ethiopians registered to vote, but the election was not held in Tigray, where officials cited “unfavourable conditions” after the region’s two‑year civil war. Voting was also disrupted in parts of Oromia and Amhara because of ongoing security concerns. Regional observers, including teams from the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, were largely confined to the capital, Addis Ababa, drawing criticism for their limited deployment.

Melatework Hailu, chairperson of the National Election Board, defended the process, stating the board operated with “institutional neutrality” and followed electoral laws without interference. Yet analysts and opposition figures dismissed the outcome as a foregone conclusion. Opposition parties accused Abiy of detaining rival leaders and restricting their campaigns, allegations his government has denied.

The election’s aftermath may deepen Ethiopia’s political fractures. Abiy’s supermajority could embolden his push for greater centralisation, a shift that risks alienating regions resistant to federal control.

Ethiopia’s internal divisions remain raw. Tigray, still reeling from the 2022 civil war, remains a powder keg. In Amhara, a surge in nationalist sentiment has fueled resistance to federal authority, while clashes persist in Oromia between government forces and the Oromo Liberation Army. Smaller ethnic groups, including the Somali population, have also expressed frustration with the central government.

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David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia, struck a more optimistic note on the economy. “Abiy has done better liberalising the economy than resolving security challenges,” he said. “I expect GDP growth to remain strong, and the foreign exchange market will stay open.” He also flagged Abiy’s long‑standing goal of securing access to the Red Sea as a looming priority. In the lead‑up to the election, Abiy suggested that if the current generation of leaders failed to secure a port, the next would succeed—“in a reasonable and fair way.”

Shinn urged diplomatic solutions over military action. “Access to the sea will dominate Abiy’s agenda,” he said. “Hopefully, he’ll pursue it through negotiation, not force.”

Regional tensions persist.

For now, the election’s outcome offers Abiy a clear mandate—but the path ahead is fraught. The balance between centralisation and regional autonomy, economic reform and security threats, and diplomacy and coercion will define his next term. The stakes extend beyond Ethiopia’s borders: instability in the Horn of Africa could ripple across the region, drawing in neighboring Eritrea and beyond.